The $20 billion toy industry is getting drunk on movies.
With a record 30 kids’ flicks coming out this year, all with toy tie-ins, retailers and manufacturers are betting big — maybe too big, some say — on Hollywood to ring up sales.
With each blockbuster, a wave of gizmos and plush toys hit store shelves, barely giving kids and their parents time to savor or save up before the next flick unspools and its merchandise hits retail.
Take the start of the summer movie season later this month. Six kids’ movies will be released in just five weeks, including Buena Vista’s “Cars 3” on June 16 and Paramount’s “Transformers: The Last Knight” on June 23.
In fact, two kids’ movies — DreamWorks Animation’s “Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie” and Warner Bros.’ “Wonder Woman” — both debut on June 2.
“The sheer volume of such movies could turn out to be cannibalistic,” said toy analyst Gerrick Johnson of BMO Capital Markets. “Kids only have so much time and money to see all these movies, and I think it’s erroneous to think that they will consume all of this content.”
Nearly one third of toy sales come from licensed goods — and movies account for the lion’s share.
With so many big releases this year, the Toy Association is expecting licensed goods’ share to grow.
But there are some early signs of movie fatigue.
Lionsgate’s “Power Rangers” came out March 24 and sold $134 million in tickets worldwide through April 30, according to BoxOfficeMojo, but has generated disappointing toy sales. Buena Vista’s “Beauty and the Beast” has been a beauty at the box office — racking up $1.1 billion in worldwide box office since March 17 — but a beast when it comes to toy sales, according to BMO research.
In fact, “BATB” has resorted to “Buy one, get one free” promotions with its toys.
US toy sales rose 5 percent last year to $20.4 billion, according to the NPD Group, less than the 6.5 percent gain it forecast.
Disappointingly, the retail force has even escaped “Star Wars” toys.
Toys ‘R’ Us, for one, said in an earnings call on April 13 that it sold $50 million less “Star Wars” merchandise in 2016 than in 2015.
A “Star Wars” movie was released in December of both 2015 and 2016.
“The fact that ‘Star Wars’ sales were down has to do with fatigue,” said Johnson.
And there’s no relief in sight. “Star Wars: The Last Jedi” opens Dec. 15.
“The good news,” said Toys ‘R’ Us Chief Executive Dave Brandon is “there are some 26 movie properties that are happening throughout 2017 that will hopefully give us some opportunities.”
Not everyone is down on the marriage between movies and toys. “This is going to be an unusually strong summer,” predicts Jim Silver, president of TTPM, a toy-review Web site.
Retailers can expect to rake in $5 billion worth of movie-related sales from just eight movies this summer, with “Spider-Man” and “Cars 3” attributing for $1 billion each, according to Silver.
Another wave of toys linked to these movies will be introduced in the fourth quarter when the videos are released. “Some of the most expensive merchandise comes out with the videos,” Silver said.